Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.